Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：财富观察)

• ·想请问申请玖富万卡的流程是什么呢？
• ·10月31日圆信永丰兴源灵活配置混合A净值增长0.50%，近3个月累计上涨19.97%
• ·有人知道360借条第二次借款失败的原因是什么吗？
• ·10月31日汇添富科创板2年定开混合净值增长0.55%，近3个月累计上涨19.52%
• ·公积金卡有密码吗-公积金卡有密码吗?
• ·百万重疾保险一年保费多少？
• ·韩国币发行多少枚-韩国币发行多少枚币
• ·10月31日山西证券精选行业混合发起式C净值增长1.05%，近3个月累计上涨27.1%
• ·一法币合多少英镑
• ·10月31日招商社会责任混合D净值增长0.19%，近3个月累计上涨21.05%
• ·Dentacoin (DCN)哪里可以买？推荐的交易平台介绍
• ·memeBIAN卓下载地址入口 memeBIAN卓手机平台最新版
• ·动力币是什么
• ·易欧交易所官网中文网(BTC投资专业平台)
• ·我在小赢卡贷申请借款后，平台显示下款中，这样一般几天到账？
• ·10月31日中银证券鑫瑞6个月持有A净值增长0.04%，今年来累计上涨3.45%